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Scientists have discovered the reason for the increasing frequency of storms in the Philippines

13 december 2024

Anthropogenic climate change has caused a rare series of typhoons to hit the Philippines this year and has increased the likelihood of powerful storms making landfall. Scientists came to this conclusion in a new study published Dec. 12, UCA News reported. According to local authorities, five typhoons and a tropical storm hit the Philippines in 23 days in October and November, killing more than 170 people and causing at least $235 million in damage.

About 20 major storms and typhoons hit this Southeast Asian country or its surrounding waters each year, resulting in many deaths. However, it is rare for several major weather events to occur at once in such a short period.To assess the role of climate change in the string of storms, scientists from the World Weather Attribution Network (WWA) used modeling to compare weather conditions in today's world with a hypothetical world without anthropogenic warming.

“Our results show that conditions favoring the occurrence of typhoon sequences in this region have improved due to global warming,” the landmarked study said. “The likelihood of several major typhoons making landfall will continue to increase as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels,” the document's authors asserted. The study, which utilized peer-reviewed methodology, found that climate change is doubling the likelihood of conditions conducive to the formation and fueling of typhoons.

At the global scale, however, the number of tropical cyclones is not significantly increasing. However, warmer seas are contributing to an increasing number of severe storms, and a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to storms that produce more rainfall. The study found that a warmer climate makes the Philippines 25 percent more likely to be hit by at least three Category 3-5 typhoons within a year.

The study said the current trajectory of global warming threatens the Philippines with even worse consequences. Recall, tropical storm “Trami”, which representatives of the civil defense of the Philippines consider the deadliest storm that hit the country this year, flooded hundreds of villages in the northern Philippines and deprived more than half a million residents of their livelihood. Super Typhoon Man-I, which severely damaged Catanduanes province last month, also caused power outages across the province, and authorities are still trying to fix that.

“While it is unusual to see so many typhoons hit the Philippines in less than a month, the conditions that triggered these storms are worsening as the climate warms,” explained Ben Clarke, a researcher at the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. The study also said that recurring storms have created a “permanent state of insecurity,” with about 13 million people affected by at least three extreme weather events.

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